With interest rates low, I intend to gamble most of my savings over the course of the coming football season. I have deposited £10,000 into a gambling account and will be making regular bets over the course of the season. By logging my bets ahead of games each week on the blog readers will be able to track progress and comment on my approach. My target is to return £12,000 by the end of the season - a significant 20% return on my investment.
I will be concentrating purely on the premier league and non-european cup games, as this is the football I know best and will be following closely over the season. My approach is to look for value bets – where I think the bookmaker has mispriced the odds considering a wide range of factors including injuries, tiredness of players and weather. This means I will not expect to win all my bets, but expect my earnings over the course of the season to outweigh my losses. Anybody who follows my actions does so at their own risk.
I have already looked at some of the season long bets on offer this week. The top four finish will be even tighter this season so I plunge into this market with caution. But I think at 4/7 Man City offer tremendous value - yes the team have not had time to gel and looked poor for long periods last season, but they have invested significantly and that quality can carry them through. But it is difficult to ignore the longer odds offered on Liverpool. Liverpool who are 7/4 are capable of a strong season. There can be no doubting that Liverpool underperformed last season, and with Torres, Gerrard and Joe Cole they have bags of attacking quality. Hodgeson should get their defence in order and I believe they are more of a challenge than an Arsenal side who will also have the distraction of the Champions League. I don’t believe Tottenham, Villa, or Everton have the strength or depth to finish fourth. Therefore it is £500 on Man City and £500 on Liverpool, which means:
a loss of £1000 if neither finish in the top 4.
a loss of £214 if Man City finish in the top four, but Liverpool don’t.
a win of £375 if Liverpool finish in the top four, and Man City don’t.
a win of £1160 if both Man City and Liverpool finish in the top 4.
While this might not look like the most desirable spread, with a loss if Liverpool don’t finish in the top 4, it is worth making the point that I treat these as individual bets, but recognise the interactions. That is the approach.
Betting on who will and won’t finish in the top half is also an interesting market. While the top 8 teams stand out clearly (Man United, Man City, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham, Everton, and Aston Villa) the next 2 spots are a close fight between the likes of Birmingham, Sunderland, Fulham and Blackburn. While Sunderland finished only 13th last season, I think they offer the best value to finish in the top 10 at 13/8 as they have a strong squad with a few new additions, and solid existing players like Bent, Malbranque, Richardson, and Fraser Campbell. I was tempted to bet on Stoke to finish in the bottom 10 at 1/4, but have opted against it purely because they do seems to be in the market for signings and the Brittania will remain a fortress. So £500 on Sunderland to finish in the top 10.
That is my lot for this week. I haven’t been tempted at the relegation betting as of yet.
